The artificial intelligence that is in the limelight will repeat the mistakes of VR last year?
At the beginning of the concept of artificial intelligence, it carries the infinite imagination of mankind to the future world. This kind of humanoid agent modeled on wisdom and thinking is a human shadow from a shallow level, just like the shadows in the shadow play. Take control.
But at a deeper level, all aspects of artificial intelligence will inevitably become closer to human beings. Just like the Tomoko in the three bodies, it is a perfect existence that allows humans to forget hatred and aggression. At that time, it is even in society. The definition in nature will inevitably lead to unpredictable changes in human feelings, and the so-called human-machine relationship may undergo fusion.
However, it is this feeling similar to the creation of new life, which makes our human ambition and sense of honor infinitely inflated. Especially in the atmosphere of capital enthusiasm and concept marketing in recent years, it creates an illusion that artificial intelligence is within reach. This is almost identical to last year's super-hot VR technology.
But the fact is, looking at the 2016 called VR first year, after countless chicken blood fever, it was only in the end that it was a cruel bubble burst.
With the frequent shooting of Alpha dogs, and even Baidu artificial intelligence, the current industry status is gaining the attention of the whole people. But what needs to be guarded is that perhaps the current artificial intelligence is like a mirage in the desert. When you run wild, there will be a large number of followers who will fall to the ground. Just as Li Feifei, an artificial intelligence scientist, is worried, too much bubble will only bring promises and goals that cannot be achieved.
Without accident, the capital winter will continue in the coming year, but the heat of artificial intelligence may continue to rise. Will this reality and ideal conflict cause many startups to face greater difficulties? Artificial intelligence bubble Will it change from looming to large-scale surface?
Entrepreneurs and the public have excessive expectations for artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence has entered the general public's vision, thanks to two global peaks. At the beginning of last year, the Alpha dog abused Li Shishi, and maintaining the last dignity of human beings in the world of chess seemed to be a matter of burning eyebrows. After a year, the Alpha dog swept the country and won the 60-game winning streak in the name of "Master". Xuan Ran wave. Unexplained, the onlookers are amazed and have more inexplicable expectations for artificial intelligence.
In fact, in the end, this is not a subversive technological breakthrough, because in terms of algorithms, humans have long been difficult to compete with computers, and Go is precisely based on fixed rules can exhaustive algorithms, so in essence, this may not be intellectual and The layout of the competition, there is no such thing as the dignity of the world of chess.
It is undeniable that Google's two advertising campaigns have done a great job, not only perfectly showing their superior artificial intelligence programs, but also affecting the world's public opinion orientation on artificial intelligence. Since then, under the impetus of the Internet giants, the industry seems to be prosperous and prosperous.
According to the "Wuzhen Index: Global Artificial Intelligence Development Report 2016", an artificial intelligence enterprise was born every 10.9 hours in the world, and China's artificial intelligence enterprises reached 709, although it is still much worse than the US 2905, but this figure is enough. shocking. I think that the Internet live broadcast platform that last year was so popular that it reached 200 in the heyday, and the artificial intelligence enterprises with higher technical thresholds can reach such a scale in a short time, which shows that there are many people pouring into the field.
Is it really possible to carry the corresponding business value behind this number?
According to the relevant data on total financing, the investment in artificial intelligence in mainland China in the past year is about 1 billion US dollars (about 6.8 billion yuan). However, the top 100 companies in the financial industry have found that the top ten artificial intelligence companies have reached more than 200 million yuan in financing, and there are as many as 18 companies with more than 100 million yuan, such as the company. The round of financing reached 200 million yuan, and the cloud-aware B-round financing was 50 million US dollars. I went out to ask for a total financing of 75 million US dollars.
It is not difficult to see from these figures that most of the financing amount is concentrated in the head, while the large-scale tail enterprises actually do not have much financial support. From this perspective, there must be most blind followers in all artificial intelligence enterprises. Like the bubble generated by this boom, they seem to be spoiled but can only go with the wind and drift.
In fact, no matter whether the feast of artificial intelligence is not true or not, it is not necessarily a good thing to look at the market paradox created by capital and marketing alone. Entrepreneurs or the public, if they are guided by propaganda and public opinion, are prone to unrealistic expectations. Once this excessive expectation cannot be translated into reality as soon as possible, it will have serious adverse effects on the market, and may also lead to many small companies. Perish.
The threshold for entrepreneurship is lower, but the threshold for success is improving
Luo Ji thought once mentioned that the original algorithm of autopilot, pattern recognition and speech recognition is different, but due to the existence of deep learning algorithm, the bottom layer is opened, which leads to the lower threshold of entering artificial intelligence, so a large number of start-ups Enterprises are beginning to move into the field of artificial intelligence. However, on the other hand, factors have also stimulated the confidence of entrepreneurs to enter, that is, the more mature artificial intelligence algorithms now rely on the massive information in the era of big data, and benefit from China’s huge population base. Information acquisition does not seem to be too difficult, so this has even become the overall advantage of domestic start-ups.
However, after all, the data is not the whole of artificial intelligence. In the final analysis, it depends on the important breakthrough of the algorithm, otherwise it will only stay in the initial stage of artificial intelligence. And even if it is a start-up that attempts to rely on big data to accumulate resources and technology, in the external environment of the giants in 2017 and the cold winter environment, coupled with the inherent disadvantages of the lack of algorithms, will it become a cannon fodder for large enterprises to attack? A thing worth pondering.
This is easily reminiscent of last year's VR industry. Now the whole industry's hype about artificial intelligence is very similar to the collective optimism of VR at the beginning of last year, and the environment and the status quo of artificial intelligence are also the same. VR is exactly the same, the same capital hot investment, everywhere, the same future technology essence, the same high-profile market expectation, but now the semi-dead VR / AR industry is likely to become a forerunner of artificial intelligence companies. For the artificial intelligence that has become a vent, we should maintain sufficient rationality in the virtual fire and the boom.
Compared with the public opinion, in fact, the investment in the field of human wages has obviously begun to become more cautious, which also confirms the cold winter of capital, and this trend may have to accompany the progress of the Internet economy for a long time. As can be seen from the figure, the investment quota has been significantly improved since the end of 2014, which is consistent with the time when the start-ups emerged. Even if the quarters fluctuate greatly, the overall amount is indeed rising every year.
However, from the perspective of the distribution of financing stages, since 2005, capital has mainly concentrated in the seed round, and the proportion of A, B and C stages has been shrinking. And there are data showing that in the five years from 2011 to 2015, more than 65% of the global financing took place in the seed/angel round or the A round, and there were only 20 rounds in the D round and later. This shows that although artificial intelligence is very hot, but investment is becoming more rational, most artificial intelligence companies can hardly impress the investors without any clear practical value or technical products. Their future financing prospects are real. Not optimistic.
Therefore, telling stories and marketing is not really a big way of artificial intelligence. Even in this field, even the technology giants have not been able to create an artificial intelligence product with perfect performance and great user scale. Most of the products of artificial intelligence can only be regarded as pseudo-artificial intelligence. Instead of investing too much in the marketing of products, it is better to pay attention to some vertical segments that the giants have not touched, and to seek opportunities from them.
It takes time for artificial intelligence technology to be transformed into commercial value
The application of artificial intelligence involves both specialized applications and general applications. The former covers most areas of domestic artificial intelligence applications, including face and speech recognition and service robots, while the latter focuses on finance, medical, and intelligence. General solutions for home and other aspects. No matter which field of application, there are clear business models, such as today's headline that relies on the artificial intelligence black box algorithm, and has accumulated a large number of users through appropriate content to the right people; Apple's Siri, Amazon's Alexa and other voices Interactive technology has successfully combined with hardware products, making it a lot of profit.
However, this also illustrates another serious fact: almost all of the more mature artificial intelligence products in the industry are from the Internet giant.
Under this pressure, in order to quickly obtain investment or earn eyeballs, start-ups often use pseudo-intelligent products as the capital for storytelling. This phenomenon is extremely common, and it has also caused the situation of “cool demand for products†in the market. This is very similar to the state presented in the VR market in the last two years. Many manufacturers have launched their own VR hardware or software programs with the help of heat, but these poorly performing cheap goods have not failed to take advantage of the situation, but have destroyed most of the consumption. The willingness to purchase.
The same is true in the field of artificial intelligence. As Zhou Hongyi said, “To be a company today, if you don’t say that you are using deep learning and artificial intelligence, you’re embarrassed to come out and mix.†“Basically every pig has artificial intelligence on it.†Mark".
A large number of pseudo-smart products, which simply add ordinary electronic products to the networking or search functions, can be touted in the name of big data and deep learning, such as some wearable devices and smart set-top boxes, and more, A water cup plus a digital thermometer dares to be smart. The existence of these commodities has largely caused the misunderstanding of artificial intelligence by ordinary users, and will have a negative impact on the application of the industry in the future.
And even with a technical breakthrough, it takes a long time to transform technology into great business value. Artificial intelligence has been in existence for 60 years since the birth of the concept. Even in the period of technological explosions in these years, there is a lack of phenomena-level products that have swept the market, and each branch has faced its own know-how.
Even if you break through the know-how, it doesn't mean that this product can be successful. Wang Xiaochuan said: If there is no technical content at the beginning, it will be difficult to become a product; further, even if there is technology, there is no product, not necessarily the size of the user; further, even if there is technology, there are users. Scale does not necessarily bring great business value. All in all, the moment when the field of artificial intelligence needs technology bursts, it needs more patience to wait for the intersection of time, place and people.
So, is the current artificial intelligence already in the right place?
Driving the market outbreak with technology maturity is the most reasonable and healthiest growth path, just like the smart phone spiked function machine. In particular, artificial intelligence, a product with strong sci-fi colors, should be step by step and step by step. It must be a victim of the technology wave because of the illusory bubble generated in the commercial boom.
VR has been ruined last year and needs to recuperate for a while before it has a chance to re-emerge. I hope that the luck of artificial artificial intelligence will not be so bad.
Ruan Dao, technology media person, Internet analyst. WeChat public number: æªæ€å¦™æƒ³(neihangaoxiao). Any form of reproduction that does not retain the author's relevant information is prohibited.
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