[PConline News] We all know that in the past year, memory prices have risen and the corresponding NAND flash prices have also risen. However, Morgan Stanley recently downgraded several chip stocks, arguing that next year's flash memory prices will Declined, earnings growth will slow down. Analyst Shawn Kim wrote in a report to clients on Sunday: "We believe that it is time to reduce investment in NAND (flash memory) and Asian semiconductor markets. This is because the industry had previously developed. Smoothness benefits from considerable demand promotion and unprecedented pricing power, and these advantages, we believe, will soon disappear, given our view of the semiconductor industry cycle, we cannot continue recommending this sector unless the market feels The pressure to increase the price of NAND products has slowed the growth momentum of logic chips in the near future. Although the global memory industry is currently at its peak, we are not optimistic about the outlook for this industry." As a result, Morgan Stanley downgraded Western Digital, Samsung Electronics and TSMC from "overweight" to "equal weight." Affected by the rating downgrade, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) plunged 5.0% at the close of November 27, while other memory chip makers' shares fell. According to the report issued by Tamron, it is predicted that next year Samsung's memory chip business will not have significant growth "seen the risk of recession, as NAND wafer prices have started to reverse in the fourth quarter of 2017, and DRAM chips in the first quarter of 2018 Since then, supply and demand dynamic visibility has declined." The storage industry is a very cyclical industry. In recent years, servers, cloud storage, and smart phones have all caused the emergence of a "supercycle" of memory chips. Now, Sean King said that according to research data, the price of flash memory has seen a downward trend, and according to the quantitative forecasting model, the DRAM memory price will also peak in mid-2018. Investors should sell the relevant stocks in the first 3 months to 6 months of the memory price peak. Capital market capital flows are always faster than market reactions. And if the stock of the storage industry is the only one that can be rated “overweight†by Micron Technology, Morgan Stanley explains that compared with the flash memory business, the fundamentals of supply and demand for DRAM are more worthwhile. Current storage giants such as Samsung Electronics did not respond to this. The objective reason lies in the market demand. The "super cycle" of the storage industry some time ago has benefited from the outbreak of solid-state storage demand for servers, smart phones and personal computers in recent years. Now, whether it is servers, mobile phones or personal PCs, the solid state The demand for storage began to shift from the incremental market to the stock market, and the demand for memory slowed down. This is also the reason why Morgan Stanley downgraded its ratings for the storage industry next year. The subjective reason lies in the monopoly of the industry. In fact, at present, the memory industry is held in the hands of the giants of the industry. Although not a single company monopolizes, but there are too few companies, the price control power of the storage industry is completely controlled by the production companies. In the seller's market, the buyer basically has no bargaining power. However, after such “abnormal†growth for a period of time, although the current price of memory has been raised, the demand has slowed down significantly, and the market growth of the storage industry will inevitably decline next year. Then the storage giant should relax and hold tight. Hand up. At the same time, the current domestic semiconductor industry, Daxing, whether it is the display screen, processor or memory, the future crowds, the final number still unknown.