2017 Top Ten Technology Trends Network Robots Become Mainstream
Predicting the future is more of an art than a science. However, with the arrival of the new year, it is always interesting to participate in such a thing. The technology industry has gone through a difficult but significant year, with technology vendors and media now gathering in Las Vegas to participate in the annual InternaTIonal Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Here are our predictions for the top 10 technology trends for 2017:
Prediction 1: Some device categories are beginning to disappear
A key indicator of the health of the technology industry is the unit shipments of hardware products and/or revenue. From PCs, tablets and smartphones to smart watches, smart TVs and head-mounted displays, people have been paying attention to statistics for decades, and then come to the conclusions from the statistical results, which can be said to have gone too far. The problem is that the boundaries between product categories are becoming increasingly blurred and indistinguishable, and the classifications that once seemed clear have become more and more chaotic.
We predict that the boundaries between product categories will become even more blurred in 2017. For example, if a vendor launches a handheld device with a desktop operating system that can serve as the primary interface for a connected car and/or smart home system, what do you call it, and how do you calculate the quantity? At present, there are more and more ways to make high-speed wireless connections with Accessories and other computing devices, plus the emergence of technology services independent of the operating system, network robots and other new software interaction modes, everything is changing.
Even the way people use and view some traditional devices will be very different. The result may be that in the new year, the traditional classification method will be completely disrupted. Therefore, this year is the time to start discussing how the industry should redefine how to assess and measure the health of the industry.
Prediction 2: VR/AR hardware goes beyond wearable devices
Although head-mounted displays and AR products are still in their infancy, we can feel the interest and enthusiasm of such products. Yes, the technology needs improvement, the price should be lower, the software choice should be more, but those who have the opportunity to try high-quality systems (such as HTC Vive, Oculus Rift and Sony PlayStaTIon VR) almost invariably believe that they witness And participated in the future. From children playing games to adults exploring the universe, VR/AR hardware can provide more and more experiences. Interested in VR/AR will no longer be just technology enthusiasts, the public will also be attracted.
On the other hand, although mainstream media has been reporting wearable products for many years, most consumers still lack demand for them. Of course, there are still some highlights in this product category, and there are likely to be some interesting new wearables in 2017, such as various smart networking headsets. However, in general, wearable devices are not attractive to the public. In fact, smart watches and other wearable devices that are widely hyped by the media are already on the decline.
Therefore, we expect that revenue generated by AR/VR hardware devices (and their accessories) will exceed the revenue of the wearable device market in 2017. Although accurate statistics are very difficult (see Forecast 1 for reasons), we still predict that AR/VR hardware will generate $4 billion in global revenues in 2017, exceeding the $3 billion in revenue from wearables. Due to the relatively low price of wearable devices, unit shipments of wearable devices are still much higher. From a business perspective, AR/VR will clearly steal the limelight of wearables this year.
Prediction 3: Mobile application installs growth stagnant technology services will grow rapidly
In the past decade, mobile applications have proven to greatly advance the growth and growth of mobile devices and mobile platforms, so it is hard to imagine that they will have a marginalized day. However, I believe that 2017 will mark the beginning of such an unfathomable era. There are many reasons: global smartphone growth has stagnated; app stores have become very bloated, it's hard to find what they want; most importantly, people's excitement about mobile apps has fallen to almost zero. One after another study shows that most applications are undownloaded, and most people have been using a few applications.
In such a frustrating background, let us not forget that the platform war has ended and many people have won – in fact, everyone can be said to be a loser. For companies that have previously focused on application development, it is now more important to provide users with services that can be used on multiple platforms and multiple devices. Of course, they may still develop applications, but those applications are just a front end or portal to their business because their services are in the cloud.
Subscription-based technology services such as Netflix and SpoTIfy are clearly the beneficiaries and excellent examples of this business model. But we expect that many different cloud businesses will become stronger in 2017. From the new software based on web robots to the "invisible" voice-driven interaction model, the types of services we spend a lot of time in 2017 will be very different from the mobile application era.
Prediction 4: Automated driving technology development slows down the rapid development of assisted driving
Undoubtedly, autonomous driving will be an important trend in the technology industry and the automotive industry in 2017, but the technical, regulatory and standard challenges facing the manufacture of truly autonomous vehicles will become more apparent in the new year, so this type of The progress of the car will undoubtedly be delayed. The early prediction was that autonomous vehicles will be realized in 2020, but some people have pushed this time back to 2021. We expect that in the new year we will see more progress in the forecast being pushed back.
This is not to say that many companies – including mainstream companies and start-ups – will stop trying to get these cars to come out faster. Of course they will not do this. During the year, we should be able to hear a lot of new news from component manufacturers, Tier 1 suppliers, traditional technology companies and automakers. However, the development of autonomous vehicles is facing difficulties (both technically and legally difficult). This technology, which puts human life at risk, is a far cry from the technology needed to make a new electronic product. It can't—and shouldn't—launch at the same speed as other consumer products. This delay is even more serious if we see more deadly traffic accidents caused by imperfect autopilot functions in the new year. If such accidents occur in situations where the ultimate responsibility is unclear, such as when passengers enjoy car sharing services, causing people to have a shadow on self-driving cars, the deployment of such cars is even more remote.
However, I am convinced that despite these concerns, we will see some important new developments in the area of ​​assisting driving technology that is slightly less attractive but also very important. Automated braking, auto collision avoidance systems, and other practical assisted driving techniques can take advantage of hardware and artificial intelligence software developed for fully autonomous vehicles to achieve more realistic goals. In fact, a survey by Technalysis Research shows that most consumers are more interested in such incremental improvements, so current autonomous driving technologies can and should meet the actual needs of such markets.
Prediction 5: Smart home products begin to unify
When it comes to smart homes, most people think of a single product, each product has its own specific functions. Nest Smart Thermostats, August Smart Locks and various surveillance camera systems are typical examples. Separately, many of these products work well. However, when some users interested in smart homes try to connect various smart home products into a more complete system, the problem becomes apparent. Different technical standards, platforms, and connection protocols are confusing, making a potentially interesting experience a nightmare. It is disappointing that for most people, there is almost no sign of improvement.
Despite these concerns, people are increasingly interested in some areas of smart home, such as distributed audio systems, WiFi amplifiers and other mesh networking products, as well as smart speakers represented by Amazon Echo. Similarly, connecting these products can also be a problem. In addition, these products take up space, require additional outlets, and create common problems with multiple independent devices.
In view of this kind of problem, we predict that there will be an "aggregated" version of these products in the new year, and many features will be unified in one product, such as high-quality voice networking.
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