At the press conference of the China Electric Vehicle Centennial Forum, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Centenary Association, said, “Although China’s new energy vehicle industry has leapt to the top in the world, it is not very strong in the research and development of core technologies. Competitiveness."
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, as of November this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 402,000 units, an increase of 60.4% compared with the same period last year.
It is not difficult to see that China's new energy automobile industry has successfully achieved “triple jump†from the “first year of industrialization†in 2014 to the “outbreak year†in 2015 and now to the “year of developmentâ€. Let the world achieve remarkable results.
However, Chen Qingtai stressed that "the next five years will be a key stage in the development of China's electric vehicle industry."
Mileage advantage will be expanded to 300 kilometers
From a global perspective, 2016 can be said to be a symbol of the transformation of pure electric drive technology.
This year, Volkswagen announced that it will not make new investment in fuel technology from 2025, and is preparing for a large-scale transformation; Japan Toyota is also adjusting its technical route at the end of the year to strengthen the transition to pure electric drive.
In addition, there are media reports that the Netherlands and Norway have proposed a plan to ban the sale of fuel vehicles by 2025.
In China, the State Council also issued a document clearly stating that “in principle, new traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers will no longer be approvedâ€. China's "13th Five-Year" technology strategy is a strategic upgrade under pure electric drive technology, namely electrification, light weight and intelligence. Recently, the "13th Five-Year National Strategic Emerging Industry Development Plan" officially promulgated by the State Council once again clarified the strategic position of green low-carbon industries such as new energy vehicles, new energy and energy conservation and environmental protection.
"For passenger cars, the main limitation lies in the volume of the vehicle. From a technical point of view, the more energy stored per unit weight and unit volume, the lower the cost, the true level of electric vehicles can be reflected. Technology." Ouyang Minggao, executive director of China Electric Vehicles 100, told NBD.
At the same time, he expected: "At present, compared with fuel vehicles, the advantages of electric vehicles are mainly reflected in the range of 100 to 150 kilometers, and with the advancement of lithium-ion battery technology, the mileage advantage of electric vehicles will generally expand to 300. Within kilometers."
If only the mileage of electric vehicles is considered, regardless of the specific conditions of the battery's specific energy, vehicle price, weight, etc., pure electric vehicles may still be difficult to achieve commercial competitiveness.
In this regard, Ouyang Minggao said that in the long run, the combination of electrification and low-carbon energy, light weight and manufacturing eco-combination, and intelligent and network-linked will become the future development route of electric vehicles.
In the next 5 years, we need to build core competitiveness
As we all know, the development process of fuel vehicles in China is basically tracking imitation, introducing and digesting, and on this basis, a little innovation, and electric vehicles bring new opportunities to China.
"The opening of China's electric vehicles is completely different from that of fuel vehicles. It is independent innovation under open conditions." Chen Qingtai said, "As Ren Zhengfei said, he has come to the forefront of this industry and there is not much that can be done. Imitation, companies are developing in line with their own definition and understanding of electric vehicles."
Despite this, most foreign automakers have prepared for large-scale transformation and gradually shift their R&D investment to new energy vehicles. In the future, once these giant multinational companies suddenly exert their strength, the competition in the new energy vehicle market will be extremely cruel.
As China's electric vehicle industry gradually enters the post-subsidy era, there are still some new energy vehicle companies with heavy production capacity and light research and development.
"Electric vehicles should compete directly with fuel vehicles. Enterprises should put their foothold in the 'post-subsidy era' anyway." Chen Qingtai said, "Electric vehicle companies that are heavily dependent on government policies will be faced in the future. Eliminated."
In addition, whether the subsidy rate of declining can form a good match with the improvement of the cost performance of electric vehicles is also related to the competitiveness of China's electric vehicle industry.
In Chen Qingtai's view, Chinese electric vehicle companies still have the opportunity to stand out from the crowd, but the time to build core competitiveness for Chinese companies is not too long, only about five years. If the subsidy is retired too quickly, there is a risk of falling vertically; and with the withdrawal of financial subsidies, the non-subsidy policy should continue for some time.
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